eMarketer has reviewed a new report and forecast by the Yankee Group regarding the future of 3G in the US. According to Yankee, by 2008, only 14% of US mobile users will be on 3G service and devices, up from less than 1% today. Yankee's analysis points to Americans' fondness of basic services such as messaging and ringtones as a key reason why the 3G market, for which the value proposition is based largely on draws such as rich media, video calling and other bandwidth-intensive applications. Yankee says by 2009 messaging will still provide over 50% of mobile revenues.
Yankee's survey data from another report shows applications such as video messaging and streamed media lower down on consumer radars, with messaging and other basic services much more in demand. While one can't extrapolate future forecasts for technology uptake based on feeble consumer knowledge of what the future may look like combined with current habits, the question arises for the US as it has with other nations already serving up 3G services – will consumers Flock to new types of services that require higher bandwidth, AND shell out over $200 for a new device. Evidence from the iPod experience is that they will buy new devices for totally new services if it allows them to move their leisure activities with them (such as music and video).
Leave a Reply