ZDNet Asia, via textually.org, brings news that some analysts believe instant messaging will overtake SMS in a few years' time to be the main non-voice messaging application for mobile devices. Ovum's John Delaney believes this will happen in the next five years in Europe, but James Enck of Daiwa and eurotelcoblog believes operators' traditionally poor sense of interoperability could stop them from capitalizing on this shift, according to ZDNet.

It seems a bit optimistic to expect this shift to take place based largely on the slow growth of SMS at this point, and Enck is dead on that operators will probably drop the ball as they do with so many other opportunities. Mobile IM has a long way to go before it knocks SMS, which succeeded largely based on its simplicity, ease-of-use and simple billing, out of the game.