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Forecasts
by tom on May 8, 2006

A couple of reports release late last week point to the importance of the mobile phone in global communication, with DM Europe reporting an estimated 3.3 billion mobile subscribers worldwide by 2010.
The number of worldwide mobile phone subscribers is expected to grow from two billion in 2005 to approximately 3.3 billion in 2010, representing a CAGR (compound average growth rate) of 10.1 per cent, according to figures from market research firm Market Intelligence Center (MIC).At the same time, DM Asia is reporting that global Internet use is nearing 700 million.
Such growth will come mainly from Asia, the Middle East and Africa. The Middle East is expected to chalk up the highest growth rate, followed by, in descending order, Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, North America and Western Europe.
With analogue and TDMA (time division multiple access) systems in North America and Latin America being gradually upgraded to GSM (global system for mobile communications) systems and with GSMA's (GSM Association) promotion of the EMH (Emerging Market Handset) programme in markets with low penetration rates, GSM handsets and network equipment will be able to achieve economies of scale. This will lead to significant cost reductions and prompting more Emerging markets to embrace the GSM system.
The 'major' Asian countries - China, Japan, Korea and India - currently represent almost 25 per cent of the world's internet population, with 168.1 million users. Combined, these four countries have a larger internet user base than the US, which has 152 million users, the largest of any single country. China comes in second, with 74.7 million users, followed by Japan with 52.1 million.With the estimated number of mobile subscribers in 2005 at 2 billion, there are almost 3 mobile phone subscribers for every Internet user.
The report also measured the average hours spent online per visitor during the month of March 2006. Somewhat surprisingly, Israel topped the list, with each user average 57.5 online hours per month, compared to the global average of 31.3 hours per month. South Korea and Taiwan came in at three and five, respectively, with 47.2 and 43.2 hours per month.
Though internet use is increasing in Asia, the region is not yet producing online content which globally competes with its US and European counterparts. US companies continue to dominate in terms of global page views. Wanadoo, at number 15, was the only non-US company to crack the global top 15 in terms of page views. For March 2006, MSN-Microsoft sites came in at number one, followed closely by Google and Yahoo.
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